Hard drive shortage 2026: what WD and Seagate just said

The hard drive shortage in 2026 is set to run well past this year. On 27 October 2026 Seagate said most of its nearline capacity is already allocated to customers under long term agreements through calendar 2028. Western Digital said on 22 October that its top seven customers have given it demand visibility into 2030 and 2031. Buyers of new Exos and Ultrastar drives should expect long waits and rising prices, and should plan for older capacities and used stock.

What Western Digital reported on 22 October

Western Digital's fiscal first quarter 2027 ended on 2 October 2026. Its results release, filed with the SEC on 22 October, shows revenue of $4.38 billion, up 55% on a year earlier, and a non GAAP gross margin of 58.1%. The company guides to about $5.1 billion for the December quarter, which would be 66% to 72% more than a year before. CFO Kris Sennesael put the quarter down to exabyte growth and improved pricing.

The investor slides give the volume side. Investing.com reported on 22 October that cloud customers bought $3.9 billion of drives, 88% of revenue, and that Western Digital shipped 248 exabytes, 223 of them nearline. According to BigGo Finance's summary of the call, average price per terabyte rose 28% from a year earlier, and CEO Irving Tan expects it to keep rising over the next three to four quarters. The same summary reports Tan saying Western Digital will not invest in more unit capacity. Its growth will come from higher capacity drives, with its 40TB ePMR platform expected to reach about half of nearline shipments by its fiscal third quarter and first HAMR volume shipments planned for the first half of 2027.

What Seagate reported on 27 October

Seagate's fiscal first quarter 2027 revenue was $4.233 billion, up from $2.629 billion a year earlier, according to its release of 27 October. It guides to $4.8 billion, plus or minus $100 million, for the December quarter.

On the call, Seagate said the vast majority of its nearline supply is allocated under long term agreements through calendar 2028, with some cloud agreements running to 2030, according to the Motley Fool transcript. It shipped a record 198 exabytes of nearline capacity in the quarter, out of 220 exabytes in total. MarketBeat's call summary adds two points that matter to anyone buying through the channel. CEO Dave Mosley said "absolutely everything we can make above and beyond our plans is being spoken for." And under Seagate's build to order process, drive configurations and pricing are generally set about 12 months before delivery.

Server and storage makers are buying too. MarketBeat reports that Seagate's enterprise OEM revenue was its second highest in more than a decade.

Which Exos and Ultrastar part numbers are affected

Cloud and data center customers take most of the output: 223 of Western Digital's 248 exabytes were nearline, and so were 198 of Seagate's 220 exabytes, according to coverage of the two calls. Resellers and storage admins buying 16TB to 22TB drives are competing for what is left. These are the models we track:

For dual port SAS shelves, the Exos X16 16TB SAS (ST16000NM002G) and Exos X18 18TB SAS (ST18000NM003J) pages list the same checks.

Neither company gave lead times for single part numbers in the material we read. The 12 month build to order window that Seagate described is the best guide to how far ahead the large buyers are committing.

What to do now if you buy or resell drives

Get quotes now for anything you need in the first half of 2027, and ask for a written price validity date. Western Digital expects price per terabyte to keep rising, and Seagate sets pricing with its large customers about a year ahead, so a quote that expires in a week is worth less than it looks.

Quote by every number a drive goes by. The same Exos or Ultrastar drive can turn up under the maker's model number, the short part number and a server vendor's option number. Our part pages list these side by side, which widens the stock you can match.

Look one or two capacities down. Exos X16 and X18, and Ultrastar HC550 and HC560, are older generations that still turn up in the used and refurbished market. For many backup targets and NAS pools a few more 18TB drives do the job of fewer 22TB drives, if the chassis has the bays.

Test used drives before they ship. Our part pages give the checks for each model: SMART reallocated and pending sector counts, power on hours, helium status, and for SAS drives pulled from storage arrays, whether they still carry 520 byte sectors that need reformatting with sg_format before a standard server will use them.

FAQ

Is there a hard drive shortage in 2026?

Yes, for high capacity enterprise drives. Seagate said on 27 October 2026 that most of its nearline supply is allocated through calendar 2028, and Western Digital said its top customers have given it demand visibility into 2030 and 2031.

Is Western Digital sold out of hard drives?

Western Digital did not use the words "sold out" in its 22 October 2026 release. Its CEO did say demand visibility for its top seven customers runs to 2030 and 2031, and that the company will not add unit capacity.

How long will the HDD shortage last?

Seagate's long term agreements cover most nearline supply through 2028. Western Digital expects price per terabyte to keep rising for three to four more quarters, according to BigGo Finance's summary of its 22 October 2026 call.

What are the lead times for Seagate Exos drives?

Seagate did not publish lead times by model. It said that under its build to order process, configurations and pricing are usually set about 12 months before delivery.

Are used 16TB to 20TB enterprise drives a safe alternative?

They can be, if you test them. Check SMART reallocated and pending sectors, power on hours and helium status, and reformat SAS drives that carry 520 byte sectors. Each of our Exos and Ultrastar part pages lists the checks for that model.